References for the 3 RECIST Lesion Model

What to read, in what order, and what has actually been checked

Pharmacometrics
references
The reading queue and source list for publishing the RECORD-1 three-lesion tumor model, with a status marker on every entry recording whether the claim drawn from it has been verified against the source.
Last edited

October 14, 2026

Nothing has been checked by Andy. Section 2 of the specification was transcribed on 2026-10-13 from text extracted from the poster PDF. The literature review was assembled the same day from abstracts, open-access full text, and automated summaries of full text; its “read from” line on each entry says which.

The working document is the specification, the literature review is Tumor Models of Nontarget and New Lesions, and the folder’s documents are on the project index.

Status markers

  • ❌ Not checked. No claim in the project has been verified against this source.
  • ⚠️ Transcribed, unverified. A number, equation or table in the project came from this source but has not been checked against it.
  • ✅ Checked. Verified against the source.

On a reading-queue entry, ✅ means the question under the entry has been answered. Change a marker when the check is done, not when the paper is opened.

Reading Queue

The first two entries answered open question 1 of the specification. The rest are the ranked reading list from Section 10 of the literature review.

  1. ✅ Stein A, Wang W, Carter AA, Chiparus O, Hollaender N, Kim H, Motzer RJ, Sarr C. Dynamic tumor modeling of the dose-response relationship for everolimus in metastatic renal cell carcinoma using data from the phase 3 RECORD-1 trial. BMC Cancer 2012;12:311. PMC3495014. Question: Does it include nontarget and new lesions? Answer: No. Target lesions only; its reference 22 is the poster, cited for the nontarget and new lesion work.
  2. ✅ Stein A, Bellmunt J, Escudier B, Kim D, Stergiopoulos SG, Mietlowski W, Motzer R, et al. Survival prediction in everolimus-treated patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma incorporating tumor burden response in the RECORD-1 trial. Eur Urol 2013;64:994–1002. PMID 23219086. Question: Does it include the three-lesion model? Answer: No. A Cox analysis of overall survival in 246 everolimus patients; nontarget growth and new lesions are univariate predictors.
  3. ❌ Yu J, Wang N, Kågedal M. A new method to model and predict progression free survival based on tumor growth dynamics. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2020;9:177–184. PMC7080535. Question: The hazard definition and simulation algorithm.
  4. ⚠️ Zecchin C, Gueorguieva I, Enas NH, Friberg LE. Models for change in tumour size, appearance of new lesions and survival probability in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. Br J Clin Pharmacol 2016;82:717–727. PMC5338128. Question: Check the Weibull coefficients quoted in review Section 3.3 against Table 3.
  5. ❌ Krishnan SM, Friberg LE, Nyberg J, Sarr C, Niebecker R, Wang S, Perez Pitarch A. A framework for prediction of progression free survival based on modelling of sub-endpoints. PAGE 30 (2022), abstract 10071. Question: Does drug exposure or SLD enter the nontarget and new lesion models? Is there a journal version?
  6. ❌ Kumar R, Thiagarajan K, Jagannathan L, et al. Beyond the single average tumor: understanding IO combinations using a clinical QSP model that incorporates heterogeneity in patient response. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2021;10:684–695. PMC8302246. Question: The form of the nontarget progression probability.
  7. ❌ Litière S, et al. The components of progression as explanatory variables for overall survival in the RECIST 1.1 database. Eur J Cancer 2014 or 2015; the sources disagree on the year. Question: The share of progression events from each component, and the year.
  8. ❌ Bonate PL, Suttle AB. Modeling tumor growth kinetics after treatment with pazopanib or placebo in patients with renal cell carcinoma. Cancer Chemother Pharmacol 2013;72:231–240. PMID 23715625.
  9. ❌ Liu H, Ibrahim EIK, Centanni M, Sarr C, Venkatakrishnan K, Friberg LE. Integrated modeling of biomarkers, survival and safety in clinical oncology drug development. Adv Drug Deliv Rev 2025;216:115476. PMID
    1. Question: Does its reference list hold a nontarget or new lesion model the review missed?

Sources Behind the Specification

  1. ⚠️ Stein AM, Carter A, Hollaender N, Motzer R, Sarr C. Quantifying the effect of everolimus on both tumor growth and new metastases in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC): a dynamic tumor model of the RECORD-1 phase III trial. J Clin Oncol 29, 2011 (suppl; abstr 4602). ASCO poster. PDF. Everything in Section 2 of the specification.
  2. ❌ Kim D, Stein A, Wang W, et al. Dynamic tumor modeling of the RECORD-1 phase III trial of everolimus quantifies relationship between dose and tumor growth in metastatic renal cell carcinoma. 26th EAU Annual Congress, Vienna, March 2011, abstract 728. The target lesion model, presumably the conference version of entry 1.
  3. ❌ Motzer RJ, Escudier B, Oudard S, et al. Efficacy of everolimus in advanced renal cell carcinoma: a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase III trial. Lancet 2008;372:449–456. The trial design, for Section 2.1.
  4. ❌ Motzer RJ, Escudier B, Oudard S, et al. Phase 3 trial of everolimus for metastatic renal cell carcinoma: final results and analysis of prognostic factors. Cancer 2010;116:4256–4265. The final trial results.

Sources Behind the Literature Review

Each is cited by its section in the review. All ❌ unless listed above.

Sources behind the literature review
Review section Source Identifier
3.4 Krishnan SM, Laarif SS, Bender BC, Quartino AL, Friberg LE. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2021;10:511–521 PMC8129720
3.6 Król A, Ferrer L, Pignon JP, et al. Biometrics 2016 PMID 26890381
4.2 Baaz M, Cardilin T, Jirstrand M. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2023;12:1227–1237 PMC10508530
4.4 Qi T, Cao Y. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2023 PMC9931430
4.5 Cerou M, Thai HT, Deyme L, et al. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2024 PMC11179707
4.6 Chigutsa E, Chapman SC, Turner PK. Clin Pharmacol Ther 2026 PMC12997494
5 Vera-Yunca D, Parra-Guillen ZP, Girard P, et al. Br J Clin Pharmacol 2022 PMID 34087010
5 Krishnan SM, Friberg LE, Bruno R, et al. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2021;10:1255–1266 PMC8520749
6 Terranova N, Girard P, Ioannou K, et al. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2018 PMC5915614
6 Kerioui M, Desmée S, Mercier F, et al. ESMO Open 2022 PMC8718952
6 Kerioui M, Beaulieu M, Desmée S, et al. Biometrics 2023 PMID 37498050
6 Chen C, Feng YS, Wang Z, et al. Eur J Cancer 2024 PMID 38834016
6 Liu A, Duan C, Maresca K, et al. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2026 PMC13274679
6 Dilley I, Zhou J, Li Q, Cao Y. Clin Pharmacol Ther 2026 PMC13058829
7 Twelves C, Cortes J, Kaufman PA, et al. Breast Cancer Res 2015 PMC4674925
7 Osorio JC, Arbour KC, Le DT, et al. J Clin Oncol 2019 PMC7194449
7 Topp BG, Thiagarajan K, De Alwis DP, et al. Ann Oncol 2021 doi 10.1016/j.annonc.2021.09.006
7 Coy HJ, Douek ML, Ruchalski K, et al. Radiology 2019 PMID 31084479
8 Bilous M, et al. Quantitative mathematical modeling of clinical brain metastasis dynamics in non-small cell lung cancer. Sci Rep 2019 bioRxiv 448282
11 Naguib K, Berché R, Li L, et al. PIONEER. arXiv 2026 arXiv 2607.17908
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